Author Topic: governments statistics can you trust them ??  (Read 204 times)

Alfred

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governments statistics can you trust them ??
« on: Nov 29, 2018, 02:09:09 PM »


Recently weve seen on our screen, the long running saga of Brexit, and the never ending yet of the merry go round,   how ever  recently the PM was quoting forecasts and predictions as to our future prospects ,


and again even the bank of England's governor mark carny, has also forecast predictions which although are not binding as these are futuristic figure surmising in a number of factors all of which could be …………………... entirely wrong,


Q;  so can we really believe what the government wants us to believe,  do you trust any politician at all , what are your thoughts regarding statistics in general,

Raven

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #1 on: Nov 29, 2018, 02:12:59 PM »
I don't believe a word the government says. Thieves, Liars and self serving rouges all.  >:(

zoony

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #2 on: Nov 29, 2018, 02:15:44 PM »
...Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Content with little but a little more would be nice.

sparky

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #3 on: Nov 29, 2018, 02:20:36 PM »
I would not trust ANY politician, further than I could throw him/her, least of all their dreamed up forecasts, or supposed facts.

Michael Rolls

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #4 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:03:51 PM »
I simply no longer believe the spoutings about the Brexit effect. So far, none of the doom laden forecasts have happened and based on the record of the Treasury and the BoE forecasts over the last decade - how many have been correct?
I wish Carney would go back to Canada - not having to put up with him for the last few years, the Canadians might believe his forecasts - I certainly don't
Mike
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Bobcat

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #5 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:08:27 PM »
I think the terms "statistics and "projections" are getting mixed up here. A statistic is an exact measurement, a lot of economics are projections based on statistical measures

Michael Rolls

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #6 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:11:10 PM »
I think the terms "statistics and "projections" are getting mixed up here. A statistic is an exact measurement, a lot of economics are projections based on statistical measures
Good point - although regarding statistics as an exact measure without qualification can be misleading - as can a lot of statistics.
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!

granny moss

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #7 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:20:57 PM »
Zooni. Exactly what my Mycky would say !!!he used to do statistics for a large shipping company....gmx

Ashy

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #8 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:51:52 PM »
87% of statistics are made up. 93% of the adult population knows it too.
Freedom is slavery. Leave means subjugation. Apparently

Scrumpy

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #9 on: Nov 29, 2018, 04:59:37 PM »



Sam was far more knowledgable than me. He had a better education and could talk on most subjects... If we had a disagreement  he often came up with. ‘ Statistics prove...’.   I couldn’t argue against that remark .I just stood open mouthed. 
 Today I would ask google.. I wonder how many times he was wrong and statistics didn’t prove anything.!
Don't think of a caterpillar dying..Think of a butterfly living.


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Ashy

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #10 on: Nov 29, 2018, 05:07:53 PM »
The most unreliable statistics are opinion polls where the question can determine the outcome. And I agree with the point that projections can say anything you want. They can also be skewed by scope, for instance 53% of disabled people have found railway stations restricted their access. Sounds pretty damning but what is that as a proportion of railway passengers, probably 0.0001%, and over their lifetime too, so actually the lack of step free access hardly ever affects any disabled people. However it affects far more able bodied people with heavy luggage which the pressure group is not interested in.
Freedom is slavery. Leave means subjugation. Apparently

Michael Rolls

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #11 on: Nov 29, 2018, 07:21:31 PM »
Statistics always remind be of the Peanuts cartoons. In one of them Charlie Brown was trying to impress Lucie and Patti.
'Do you realise' he exclaimed, 'that men are infinitely superior to women? 93% of men are college graduates. 91% are over six feet tal'l.. he went on in similar vein for a while, then stopped for breath.
'Wow', said Lucie, 'where did you get all those statistics?'
'I just now made them up!' he admitted
Mike (the numbers I have used I made up - but the concept is accurate)
The older I get, the better I was!

Diasi

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #12 on: Nov 29, 2018, 10:14:35 PM »
I think the terms "statistics and "projections" are getting mixed up here. A statistic is an exact measurement, a lot of economics are projections based on statistical measures

Statistics are one of the easiest things to manipulate.

I had a 5 year spell in the Civil Service in the 1960s & one of my roles was in the compilation of the Retail Price Index which was kept deliberately artificially low by including the cost of white goods, so a rise in food prices was more than offset by the price of a washing machine being reduced.

Although the statistics were based on factual prices, people had to buy food every week but they didn't have to buy a washing machine every week. 
« Last Edit: Nov 29, 2018, 10:19:06 PM by Diasi »
If the Jews are God's chosen people, why did he give the oil to the Arabs?

Ashy

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #13 on: Nov 29, 2018, 10:35:39 PM »
A bit like the unemployment figures, seasonably adjusted.
Freedom is slavery. Leave means subjugation. Apparently

fortyone

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Re: governments statistics can you trust them ??
« Reply #14 on: Nov 29, 2018, 10:41:03 PM »
Ah if you served in the Civil Service you will certainly know about chairs.


A friend told me this many years ago - back in the early 70s in fact. He had served in The Civil Service in the Foreign Office. His boss was very proud of his rather grand chair. Apparently all the various bosses were. Chairs were status symbols. My friend's main job was sending out government pamphlets to ex Commonwealth nations in Africa. This may sound like a tedious and pointless job. Certainly my friend felt it to be the case but as his boss detested him the chances of promotion to some other doubtless pointless but hopefully less tedious job was slim.


Anyway his boss went off on 2 weeks leave and my friend put his chair in a large box and shipped it off to King somebody or other in Africa. When his boss returned he assumed some other civil servant had stolen his grand chair and spent at least a week trying to find it.  Neither the chair nor the culprit were ever discovered and the chair was never returned.

Just a mug who thought Brexit meant Brexit