Author Topic: How likely is a second wave?  (Read 715 times)

klondike

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How likely is a second wave?
« on: Sep 11, 2020, 08:35:53 AM »
Not very according to these three respected scientists...

https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/


I find this section particularly telling...


While published data on deaths ‘with’ COVID-19 is dependent on testing regimes and therefore liable to inaccuracy due to missing information – for example undetected asymptomatic patients – the data does allow a sound approximation of the flow of the outbreak. Inspecting the daily COVID-19 deaths vs. time curve for the UK we see a Gompertz-type curve (Rypdal and Rypdal, 2020) which are typical of natural, biological phenomena, well documented in biomedical scientific papers over the last 40 years. Note the lack of discontinuities in the curve, suggesting no effective interventions have interrupted its development.


The part I have bolded says that the lockdown achieved precisely nothing in altering the course of the epidemic.
« Last Edit: Sep 11, 2020, 08:50:41 AM by klondike »


Sheila

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #1 on: Sep 11, 2020, 09:04:54 AM »
As I have said before, we locked down for about six months and started to carefully venture out whilst keeping an eye on the local figures.  Not too long ago, it was 7 local new confirmed cases in a week.  It went up and has just dropped to 113. 

I locked down again 10 days ago and haven't been in close contact with anyone except OH and he has been extremely careful.
Everything I can't find is in a totally secure place.

klondike

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #2 on: Sep 11, 2020, 09:21:16 AM »
Everyone must do what they consider best for themselves.


Scrumpy

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #3 on: Sep 11, 2020, 09:23:25 AM »



I am careful.. I only go out to the shop when I have to.. I go for a walk... I have friends I meet up with for coffee ( One at a time)..  I will not attend the doctors surgery for flu jab.. I prefer to use our local chemist ..


My mate who has underlying problems was informed a couple of days ago that she could come to the surgery for her flu jab or do a  'Drive Thru'.. This would be carried out in the practice car park ..


Who really knows whether or not we will get a second wave..!!  So many numbers being put about.. Daily changes on what we can or can not do..
I care about me and MY family.. So, wise or not, I will not be taking any chances..I want to see next Spring..
Don't think of a caterpillar dying..Think of a butterfly living.


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crabbyob

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #4 on: Sep 11, 2020, 09:36:38 AM »
i'm with you hon. i will take as many precautions as i can to ensure my next birthday.


and to any unmasked person who think i look stupid with my mask on......i can take it off, just how stupid are you without one on?
every hill has a down side, even Benny Hill

Scrumpy

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #5 on: Sep 11, 2020, 09:41:57 AM »



A mask is good... It hides my facial hair..!!  No need for plucking ... ;D
Don't think of a caterpillar dying..Think of a butterfly living.


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GrannyMac

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #6 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:32:25 AM »

A mask is good... It hides my facial hair..!!  No need for plucking ... ;D

 ;D  as if!  If my daughter and all the other health workers have to wear one all day at work, then I see no problem for the short times I'm expected to wear mine.

Don't want to wear one? Don't go to places where masks are required.


I had an xray yesterday. The hospital corridors and waiting areas were very quiet,  it felt safe. Flu jab tomorrow. Quick in and out at GP just round the corner.
There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action.

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Diasi

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #7 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:34:39 AM »

A mask is good... It hides my facial hair..!!  No need for plucking ... ;D

Do you need plucking on a regular basis?
Make every day count, each day is precious.

There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action.

Apart from the gullible in action.

Michael Rolls

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #8 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:35:18 AM »

 ;D  as if!  If my daughter and all the other health workers have to wear one all day at work, then I see no problem for the short times I'm expected to wear mine.

Don't want to wear one? Don't go to places where masks are required.


I had an xray yesterday. The hospital corridors and waiting areas were very quiet,  it felt safe. Flu jab tomorrow. Quick in and out at GP just round the corner.
Seems straightforward enough
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!

klondike

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #9 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:39:16 AM »
I wear one because the law says I must. I don't believe they do any good at all and indeed because of misuse and false confidence in them they could actually make matters worse.

The paper I linked to doesn't mention masks. It does say unequivocally in more than one place that none of the interventions applied made a shred of difference to the progress of the virus which has now pretty much run its course in most of Europe.


klondike

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #10 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:41:13 AM »
.


Diasi

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #11 on: Sep 11, 2020, 10:50:19 AM »

The paper I linked to doesn't mention masks. It does say unequivocally in more than one place that none of the interventions applied made a shred of difference to the progress of the virus which has now pretty much run its course in most of Europe.

What they can't say is whether or not I'd get Covid if I didn't take all possible precautions.
Make every day count, each day is precious.

There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action.

Apart from the gullible in action.

klondike

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #12 on: Sep 11, 2020, 11:42:03 AM »
I'll add this to my list to revisit just like the Mccan thread. I'll checked back each month and we'll see if there has been a second wave or if, indeed, the virus has run its course.

Obviously that sort of paper can't make individual predictions and individuals may get infected. I'll still keep up distancing and hand hygiene because there is still a little of it around. What I won't do is let it turn me into a recluse.


Cassandra

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #13 on: Sep 11, 2020, 02:23:49 PM »
As likely as Govt appointed statisticians are told to make it, after politicians get their instructions from the W.H.O. - and Nicola Surgeon of course.

zoony

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Re: How likely is a second wave?
« Reply #14 on: Sep 11, 2020, 06:27:16 PM »
No idea what, if any, significance this has but: Watching the Tour De France today it was noticeable that, even out in the countryside and up and down mountains, the spectators at the side of the road, and they are everywhere, were, to a huge extent masked. Standing alone on a country road they were masked, in all the towns and villages they were masked, on the farms or on a high street the same..I'm not sure the UK public would be that conscientious...Just saying..
" There ain't no Devil, it's jus' God when he's drunk.."

Tom Waites