In the last 24 hours 1,009 (9-10-20) Scots have tested positive for the virus. This has resulted in 35 new hospital admissions and 4 more cases in ICU (not clear if those 4 are within or additional to, the 35). That 1,009 figure represents 14.1%of the total tested, so 7,156 tests must have been caried out. So, those 7,156 tests resulted in 39 admissions (worst case, I am adding the 4 ICU cases to the 35) or a little over one half of one percent of those tested (0.54% to two places), and 4 ICU cases or around one-twentieth of one percent (0.06 to two places). Six persons have died with covid-19 on the death certificate.
If one accepts Hancock’s figure of 0.8 of tests resulting in false positives, then of those 1,009 positive results, 57 are likely to be false positives. The figure of 14.1% testing positive is higher than in the past, so there is no call for complacency, although we have no indication as to how the 7,156 were selected. It would seem sensible for testing to be of people likely to be exposed to the virus, rather than testing a purely random selection, but as with so many of these bulletins, we just don’t know – we aren’t being giving the facts in enough detail to really understand what risks we are facing.
For comparison, in August – the latest date for which I can find a figure, there were 4,232 deaths in Scotland from all causes. That’s an average of 139 deaths a day. Yesterday covid-19 killed 6 Scots, so about one death in 23 – although it is probably a little lower because all deaths are likely to increase as autumn/winter approach. Look at it another way – 7,156 tests – 6 deaths.
Do these numbers really seem bad enough to induce the political panic that we are seeing?
Mike