Author Topic: 50,000!  (Read 74 times)

Michael Rolls

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50,000!
« on: Oct 14, 2020, 06:42:02 AM »
Don't forget, folks - today is the day we were supposed to see 50,000 new positive cases. Mind you, I can hear the waffle from Vallance already.
 'This was never a forecast, it was a projection based on the best information available at the time, information which showed an extremely concerning rate of increase in recent cases, and information which it would have been wrong not to have made public. Clearly, the measures which were subsequently put in place succeeded in slowing down the rate of growth in cases, which clearly indicates a need to maintain them, and in the worst affected areas, increase them.'


Wonder if he wants a speech writer?
Mike 🤬🤬🤬🤬
The older I get, the better I was!

klondike

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #1 on: Oct 14, 2020, 09:41:50 AM »
From bits I've read the papers seem to have settled on 14th or even 15th for the 50,000 which is why the spreadsheet I chose to keep was out of step with the newspaper one I posted about somewhere yesterday because I picked the 13th taking the weekly doubling to start from the announcement on 15th September.

I could go back and reset the start to place the end of my doubling on 14th or 15th but as the whole premise is now shown to be hogwash I can't be bothered.

I'll add a link to my spreadsheet again but bear in mind that discrepancy and the fact I picked England hospitalisations as the full UK figure lags by at least a week.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SzX0Yhm8sCIaA3gPaZx9RL6Kxbh93xAE-0VWKrYmRxA/edit?usp=sharing


My figures now come from
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
and I use https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for England hospitalisations
If I miss the "cases" and deaths numbers I wrote a screen scraper to grab the numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ which runs half a day behind and that screen scraper is here..
https://favourites.digitalham.co.uk/check_covid.php
« Last Edit: Oct 14, 2020, 09:47:16 AM by klondike »

Michael Rolls

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #2 on: Oct 14, 2020, 09:44:28 AM »
Stout effort, sir, very useful
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!

klondike

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #3 on: Oct 14, 2020, 09:53:56 AM »
Some may say obsessional  :) 


I wonder about the veracity of the source data.

For instance on the day of the announcement there were 27 deaths following a week of single figures. Then yesterday (end of a weekly doubling step) it was 143 while the previous day's 7 day rolling average was 72 and declared total 50.

Michael Rolls

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #4 on: Oct 14, 2020, 10:09:57 AM »
So do I
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!

Ashy

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #5 on: Oct 14, 2020, 01:02:12 PM »
It is 50,000 really but 49,990 of them are still waiting to be tested.
Stand up, or give up.

Michael Rolls

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Re: 50,000!
« Reply #6 on: Oct 14, 2020, 01:34:59 PM »
Ah,hadnít realised that. SHUCKS!
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!