Author Topic: Circuit breaker  (Read 462 times)

xetog

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Circuit breaker
« on: Oct 15, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »
I keep reading that the idea of a national temporary lockdown (circuit-breaker) is popular amongst the population of the UK.  I have to say  that I don't see the point of such a move, since it would only slow the rate of infection temporarily and then we would sometime have to go through the whole process again whilst watching the economy tanking even further.


Anyone else got an opinion on this?


Mike.X
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klondike

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #1 on: Oct 15, 2020, 09:37:59 AM »
Two weeks would be enough to finish off some businesses on the brink. There is no proof that it would have much effect on the progress of the virus though (especially as there would be widespread ignoring of the rules). Then in two weeks time they'll see that the figures haven't improved and it would continue destroying more jobs and businesses and doing bugger all to stop the progress of the virus. I'm pretty much convinced that the epidemic will run virtually the same course whatever is done.

I'll quote my own post that I started off the "How likely is a second wave? " thread with...

Not very according to these three respected scientists... https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/


I find this section particularly telling...


While published data on deaths ‘with’ COVID-19 is dependent on testing regimes and therefore liable to inaccuracy due to missing information – for example undetected asymptomatic patients – the data does allow a sound approximation of the flow of the outbreak. Inspecting the daily COVID-19 deaths vs. time curve for the UK we see a Gompertz-type curve (Rypdal and Rypdal, 2020) which are typical of natural, biological phenomena, well documented in biomedical scientific papers over the last 40 years. Note the lack of discontinuities in the curve, suggesting no effective interventions have interrupted its development.


The part I have bolded says that the lockdown achieved precisely nothing in altering the course of the epidemic.

Yes the number being tested positive are increasing.
Yes more are going into hospital.
Yes deaths are increasing.

None of those things are increasing at a rate that justifies finishing off the already sick hospitality sector. Doubly so when quite a few scientist say the interventions do nothing anyway.

I see the Mail have another lockdown sceptic story today. I'll just post the link for those who buy in wholeheartedly to government policy to ignore.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840965/PROF-ANGUS-DALGLEISH-Matt-Hancock-survived-axe.html
« Last Edit: Oct 15, 2020, 09:47:11 AM by klondike »

GrumpyOldFart

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #2 on: Oct 15, 2020, 09:46:38 AM »
At the end of the circuit break the problem would still be there and infections would start to rise again but the economy would be even weaker. What then, another circuit break and then another until there is no economy left to destroy?

klondike

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #3 on: Oct 15, 2020, 09:49:42 AM »
I doubt that the "infections" which are for the most parts positive tests of the asymptomatic would reduce anyway. What they've done up north so far has done bugger all and I can't see the young taking any notice even if it would have done.

Michael Rolls

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #4 on: Oct 15, 2020, 09:58:33 AM »
If imposed it will be totally and utterly pointless - there is no real proof that it will actual achieve any worthwhile of a reduction in the rate, prevalence or seriousness of the virus, but it will definitely put another nail in the coffin of our economy.
One thing that really annoyed me yesterday - forgotten in which of the reports I read it, but it referred to the current 'eased' restrictions and warned that if the virus continues to increase 'these privileges may have to be withdrawn'
So now in the eyes of our lords and masters, being able to to the shops, meet - nit more than 5 - other people, etc., are privileges!  - privileges to be withdrawn if the government feels like it
Mike - the censor would melt if I expressed my feelings in the way I would like
The older I get, the better I was!

Michael Rolls

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #5 on: Oct 15, 2020, 10:08:32 AM »
I see Professor Dalgleish shares my opinion of Matthew Hancock - Tony of that ilk would be a better choice. The SoS (never was an abbreviation more appropriate) seems totally and utterly ignorant of what should be easily graspable concepts
Mike
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Ashy

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #6 on: Oct 15, 2020, 10:57:57 AM »
The R rate is in any case guesswork.
Stand up, or give up.

Diasi

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #7 on: Oct 15, 2020, 11:36:16 AM »

I see the Mail have another lockdown sceptic story today. I'll just post the link for those who buy in wholeheartedly to government policy to ignore.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840965/PROF-ANGUS-DALGLEISH-Matt-Hancock-survived-axe.html

Yes, it's well-known that experts don't like being challenged, which they often are in the law courts when their expert opinions are demolished by the other side.
Make every day count, each day is precious.

There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action.

Apart from the gullible in action.

Michael Rolls

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #8 on: Oct 15, 2020, 10:51:52 PM »
Yes, it's well-known that experts don't like being challenged, which they often are in the law courts when their expert opinions are demolished by the other side.
Phil
You’ve lost me with comment. It is clearly accurate, as has been demonstrated many times, but which aspect of the debate are you dismissing?
Mike
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Temperence

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #9 on: Oct 15, 2020, 11:00:09 PM »
Thanks for posting that link.


I too am of the opinion that a new lockdown would achieve nothing except to further devastate businesses and weaken the economy.


This pandemic is a classic example of what in social science is called a "moral panic". 


A moral panic is a widespread fear, often an irrational one, that someone or something is a threat to the values, safety, and interests of a community or society at large. Typically, a moral panic is perpetuated by the news media, fueled by politicians, and often results in the passage of new laws or policies that target the source of the panic. In this way, moral panic can foster increased social control.

Moral panics often draw on known stereotypes and reinforce them. It can also exacerbate the real and perceived differences and divisions between groups of people.
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing

Michael Rolls

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #10 on: Oct 15, 2020, 11:15:42 PM »
That’s just about what we have now in government circles
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!

Temperence

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #11 on: Oct 15, 2020, 11:32:12 PM »
Asian people are being targeted because they are seen as living in extended families twenty to a house. Young people feel they are being targeted because of the effect upon their education and because they like to party. Old people feel they are being targeted because of their age and vulnerability. Divide and rule.
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing

Diasi

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #12 on: Oct 15, 2020, 11:46:19 PM »
Phil
You’ve lost me with comment. It is clearly accurate, as has been demonstrated many times, but which aspect of the debate are you dismissing?
Mike

What's clearly accurate is that none of the experts can say how many additional cases there would have been without lockdown.

https://bit.ly/2H6tzPF
Make every day count, each day is precious.

There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action.

Apart from the gullible in action.

zoony

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #13 on: Oct 16, 2020, 01:27:30 AM »
I've come to dislike this 'Circuit-breaker' sound-bite tag that's being used ad nauseum.. It seems meaningless, lazy and a bit patronising..There's patently no such action, other than to shut the country down for 6 weeks which might be termed a circuit-breaker but, the cost being prohibitive, it's not going to happen. Trying to do it in biteable bits is not , imo, going to dent the problem either.. My more-or-less constant brain fog conceals any clear alternative at this point other than letting us get on with it sans government interference.. ???
A man said: You can always tell a lady, but you can't tell her much.. (Moliere maybe?)

Michael Rolls

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Re: Circuit breaker
« Reply #14 on: Oct 16, 2020, 03:32:07 AM »
What's clearly accurate is that none of the experts can say how many additional cases there would have been without lockdown.

https://bit.ly/2H6tzPF
As an illustration as to how scared the country has become, that poll could hardly be bettered
Mike
The older I get, the better I was!