Author Topic: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?  (Read 192 times)

klondike

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Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« on: Nov 20, 2020, 09:03:07 AM »

IMO the article in the link below is worth a read no matter how much you consider me to be in denial of masks and the lockdown.


So how valid are the daily "cases" announced?It should be remembered that these are not what you'd normally call a case with somebody ill in bed they are positive results from the ever increasing number of PCR tests performed. Those numbers have driven us into a second lockdown but how reliable are they? Well not very according to the article below. Don't forget that the other figures of hospital admissions and deaths are highly reliant on those test results too because there are plenty of other respiratory diseases doing the round at this time of year and the current rate of deaths from those and total deaths remains close to the 5 year average for this time of year.


https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/11/20/latest-news-199/#health-and-safety-breaches-at-a-lighthouse-lab


As well as the already known issue of false positives it seems that the rush to increase the number of daily tests has lead to many shortcuts in training staff at testing centers and the test labs themselves. Of course there are also many postal tests which are administered by people based on an enclosed instruction leaflet too.


As well as the failings leading to cross contamination (as probably happened with xetog's positive test as I suggested at the time) they can apparently lead to a possibly exposure to biohazard by anybody handling or processing the samples.


As I said in a post yesterday we can have just as much covid as we can afford for test kits.

Ashy

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #1 on: Nov 20, 2020, 09:31:54 AM »
Most unreliable. Trust the BBC to try and keep it going.
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Michael Rolls

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #2 on: Nov 20, 2020, 09:41:14 AM »
I've read the two elements of the link - it makes horrific reading. Quite apart from the inaccurate results being produced, even more worrying is the clear dangers (unless the company has cleaned up its act) to the people working there
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xetog

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #3 on: Nov 20, 2020, 09:51:24 AM »
I agree with your analysis klondike.  Whilst we do not see eye to eye on the subject of masks, things I have seen recently lead me to believe that the statistics we get are nowhere near accurate.  All the 'experts' laughed when Trump declared "More tests, more positives", bur experience has proved him right.  Unless a figure of positives is tied to the number of tests, i.e., X positives per 10,000 tests we will never have a valid figure and in truth we will never know anyway.

Today's news is that 25% of the population may be immune anyway because of pre-loaded T cells  (this was predicted some time ago).  Add to that the vast numbers who suffer no symptoms and it is impossible that an accurate idea of the infection rate will ever be known.

I saw an expose' on ITV's Today programme the other day showing how some test kits were being handled.  It was a disgrace with boxes just tipped out on tables and sorted in what looked like a warehouse, with no attention paid to order, or hygiene and as I predicted in another thread last nigh on BBC2 'experts' laid bare the muddle they were in with two admitting that they got the protection measures for care homes wrong because they simply forgot to ask how the homes operated which exposed  20,000 to an early death.

Yet, we blame the inexpert politicians for making the wrong decisions.  How could they do anything else under the circumstances?  They are not without fault, but who else should they rely on?

Mike.X
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klondike

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #4 on: Nov 20, 2020, 09:59:44 AM »
I was reading an article on whether or not the asymptomatic, who could even be a majority of those infected,  can be infectious. The suggestion was that they will still breathe out the virus on tiny aerosol droplets which will quickly evapourate leaving naked virus particles in the air where they can remain for long periods and remain viable. It could have been in the article on masks which pointed out that nothing other than a fully sealed positive pressure mask will keep those particles out. Indoors we could be living in an atmosphere made up of Nitrogen, Oxygen, minor gasses and virus particles.

Ashy

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #5 on: Nov 20, 2020, 10:17:41 AM »
I think we should get back to leading a normal life and let those who need protecting we protected. But this new disease is not the black death, and we know enough about it now. How come airlines/trains/buses etc. never concerned themselves before with any other diseases? It makes no sense to me.
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Sheila

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #6 on: Nov 20, 2020, 10:29:53 AM »
Well all I know is that my daughter and her friend have been extremely ill for two weeks but are slowly starting to improve.  My granddaughter has it now. 

My daughter had been as careful as she could be but we think my grandson brought it home from school.

Going by my daughter's experience, it would probably kill me if I caught it.

We've got a boiler repair man coming today and I shall stay in the conservatory.  I've suggested to Paul that he does not offer the usual cuppa but points out the problem and leaves the expert to it.  It's a family business that we have used for 27 years so no worries about security.
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xetog

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #7 on: Nov 20, 2020, 10:50:37 AM »
We don't know anybody who has had it (except me and that now infamous false positive).  We too have been using the same boiler company for years, but knowing that we were vulnerable (a euphemism for old) they did not come for our annual service in September as usual.  When I eventually called them earlier this month they explained the position but I said come anyway.  Like you said Sheila, I pointed out where the boiler was, the loft hatch tool (for inspecting the flue)and switched the loft light on.  He came masked, gloved and wearing shoe covers.  We retreated to the sitting room for 20 minutes or so, he went as carefully as he came.


Ashy, I don't know if you missed it, but there has been a three part series on Channel 5 (last part tonight) about the Great Plague.  Very interesting and with a great many parallels to todays pandemic.  Of course that was a bacterial infection and Covid-19 is a virus, but they had no protection, like us and knew very little about how to combat it whereas we have half a century of medical advances under our belt.  Spread of the infection was very similar although it has now been worked out that it was spread by human body lice (different apparently to human head lice), but they worked out that they needed to quarantine, social distance etc.  An interesting programme if you are interested it will be on catch up.


Mike.X
If you want to control peoples thoughts, first control their words.

klondike

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #8 on: Nov 20, 2020, 03:16:55 PM »
A short 3 minute video from the CH4 Despatches undercover covid lab program


https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/undercover-in-a-covid-testing-lab/1040974489677291/


I don't think it is necessary to log in (I didn't) but if anybody wants to view and can't I'll download it and put it on Youtube.

Ashy

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #9 on: Nov 20, 2020, 03:46:43 PM »
Worked for me, including the comments, without logging in.

I think Randox did my wife's recent "fit to fly" test, thank goodness she was not false positive because she would have been inconsolable and wasted an awful lot of money. We know it is a scam and could have sent a sample from the dog. But if you did get a positive there wouldn't be time to get another test done in the circumstances.
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Diasi

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #10 on: Nov 20, 2020, 03:53:53 PM »
Well all I know is that my daughter and her friend have been extremely ill for two weeks but are slowly starting to improve.  My granddaughter has it now. 

My daughter had been as careful as she could be but we think my grandson brought it home from school.

Going by my daughter's experience, it would probably kill me if I caught it.


I'm like I imagine you are Sheila.

I tend to pay far more attention to the people, many of them quite young, who, from their oxygen masks & hospital beds, beg everyone to take the virus seriously & to follow the precautions that are in place, than I do to the the statistics analysers.
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Ashy

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #11 on: Nov 20, 2020, 04:13:19 PM »
I wonder if any of these journalists ever ask a patient how they think they came to catch this disease? I don't blame them for getting emotional, I felt the same when I had it in January. But can we tolerate a society where people are arrested and beaten up, this is not Nazi germany.
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Diasi

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #12 on: Nov 20, 2020, 05:51:36 PM »
I wonder if any of these journalists ever ask a patient how they think they came to catch this disease?

Well a reasonable guess would be by being in close contact with an infected person so that's probably why they don't ask.

I think the old 'off the toilet seat' cause has long been debunked.
Make every day count, each day is precious.

"There is nothing more frightful than the ignorant in action".

Apart from the gullible in action.

Ashy

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #13 on: Nov 20, 2020, 06:26:52 PM »
They say they have tested many trains and buses and found no residual virus on handrails and surfaces. The question is where were they when they were infected. What brought them into close proximity with an infected person. Is it something we should be avoiding.
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GrannyMac

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Re: Covid. How valid are the daily "cases" announced?
« Reply #14 on: Nov 20, 2020, 07:05:49 PM »
I'm like I imagine you are Sheila.

I tend to pay far more attention to the people, many of them quite young, who, from their oxygen masks & hospital beds, beg everyone to take the virus seriously & to follow the precautions that are in place, than I do to the the statistics analysers.

Me too. 

Have you been able to speak to your wife recently? I do hope she's being well cared for.